Newsletter summary

PX, PTA, PF Neutral3numbersandpowerballPay attention to the short-term anti-fall in prices under the treasury and the changes in downstream demand in the medium and long term. PX centralized maintenance support to the warehouse, but the market mentality affects its rising rate. PTA is affected by maintenance, and the risk of load decline downstream in the medium and long term. PF is supported by cost and pays attention to the downstream replenishment rhythm. Risks: crude oil fluctuations and downstream demand persistence.

Text of news flash

[: chemical product market analysis and investment strategy prospect]

There have been some fluctuations in the chemical products market recently, so investors should pay close attention to the price trend and inventory changes of PX, PTA and PF. In the short term, the prices of PX and PTA show relative resilience, while in the medium to long term, we need to pay attention to the changes in downstream demand.

Although the actual inventory pressure suppresses the elasticity of PX processing fees, the centralized maintenance of PX from April to May is expected to provide some support for destocking. However, the market is no longer optimistic about gasoline demand, which limits the upside of PX09. If PXN is further reduced to around $300 / tonne, investors may consider moderately increasing their long positions.

In terms of PTA processing fees, April experienced a process of first rising, then falling and then rising. Although the level of social inventory is still on the high side, the heavy demand for centralized maintenance and downstream polyester and terminal weaving provides short-term support for PTA prices. In the long run, attention should be paid to the cashing of PTA overhaul in May and the impact of seasonal off-season on downstream load.

The operating rate of terminal weaving and downstream polyester remains high, which provides support for PTA demand. Although the terminal adopts the strategy of low raw materials and rigid demand for stock, under the background of low grey fabric finished product inventory, there is still the possibility of phased replenishment in the market. Overall, there is a risk of a decline in filament and bottle load in May, but a large-scale decline is unlikely, and demand is still supported. From June to July, due to the off-season in the textile industry and the gradual release of new capacity for bottle chips, the load is likely to fall further.

In terms of PF, the inventory pressure of PF itself eased in April, but the spot production profit did not improve significantly, and the price was mainly affected by cost fluctuations. Follow-up need to pay attention to downstream orders and overseas replenishment rhythm, which may give a phased boost to PF prices.

When formulating investment strategies, investors should maintain a neutral position and pay attention to the price trend and inventory changes of PX, PTA and PF. At the same time, it is necessary to pay close attention to the fluctuation of crude oil price and the persistence of downstream demand in order to avoid potential risks.